Sweden should have the ball more and Tunisia should be the sharper transition side, so the game likely hinges on whether Sweden can turn possession into clean entries against a compact block. The key duel is **Gyökeres** attacking Tunisia’s center-backs and the channels around them, with **Nygren** and **Ayari** responsible for finding him early before Tunisia can reset. Tunisia’s best route is to pull Sweden’s back line out with **Ali Abdi** and **Mortadha Ben Ouanes** advancing from wide areas, then exploit any space behind Sweden’s full-backs with **Sebastian Tounekti**. If Sweden controls the second balls and protects against counters, their edge in the market looks justified; if Tunisia turns it into a stop-start, territorial scrap, the draw becomes live.
