🇩🇪Germanyvs🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Germany enter as the **63% no-vig favorite** because they are 10 straight wins overall, scored **7** in their opener, and have won **nine of their last 10** matches by **2+ goals**; Ivory Coast arrive in better upset shape than the market implies, though, after a 1-0 opener and a compact block that has already shown it can survive long defensive phases. Germany’s baseline is a **4-2-3-1/3-1-6** possession game that overloads the half-spaces through **Kimmich, Musiala, and Wirtz**, while Ivory Coast have been set up more as a **4-3-3 mid-block** built to close the center and counter through pace, so the tactical axis is Germany’s ball-dominance versus Ivorian transition exits. The first decisive matchup is **Kai Havertz vs the Ivory Coast center-backs**, because Havertz is the focal No.9 in Germany’s projected XI and is also on penalties, giving Germany both box presence and set-piece leverage; the second is **Lennart Karl / Wirtz between the lines vs Ivory Coast’s double pivot**, where Germany’s chance creation depends on finding central receptions before the block can collapse. The third is **Nicolas Pépé vs Germany’s rest-defense**, because Ivory Coast’s best route is the vertical counter into space behind advanced full-backs, exactly the zone Germany have previously exposed when they conceded in **seven straight World Cup matches**. Set pieces may be the swing area: Germany have multiple delivery options through **Kimmich, Brown, Wirtz, and Havertz**, while Ivory Coast’s threat is more likely to come from second balls after direct clearances than from sustained possession. Statistically, the match should tilt toward the side that wins the **central press resistance battle** and turns that into shots: if Germany keep Ivory Coast below about **1.0 xG** from transition moments, the market favorite should control the game; if Ivory Coast force turnovers high and get Pépé/Bonny running at a back line that has lacked clean sheets, the draw or a narrow Ivorian edge becomes live.