🇯🇴Jordanvs🇩🇿Algeria

Algeria enter as clear statistical favorites with a 61% implied win probability, underpinned by a higher FIFA ranking (around 28 vs Jordan’s 63), a +6 goal difference in AFC/CAF qualifying, and 1.7 non-penalty xG per match vs Jordan’s 1.1. Jordan’s recent form is built on a compact 4-4-1-1/4-2-3-1 block that conceded only 0.9 goals and 1.0 xG per game in AFC qualifying, but their attack leaned heavily on Mousa Al Tamari (9 goals, 6 assists, ~0.45 npxG+0.20 xA per 90) and set plays for shot volume. Algeria typically line up in a fluid 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 with high possession (around 60% in qualifying, 72% in their group-stage win over Jordan), generating 15–17 shots and ~1.8–2.0 xG per match, driven by Riyad Mahrez (~0.55 npxG+0.30 xA per 90, 10 goals, 8 assists in qualifiers and pre-World Cup friendlies), Amine Gouiri (~0.50 npxG, 8 goals) and Houssem Aouar as the progressive passer (7.0 progressive passes and ~0.25 xA per 90). Key matchups include Al Tamari attacking Algeria’s left side—where Mahrez’s advanced positioning leaves space—up against an Algerian left-back who concedes ~1.5 dribbles per 90, versus Mahrez and Gouiri targeting Jordan’s right channel, where Jordan allowed 40% of their shots in qualifying and just conceded 10 corners and 1.81 xG to Algeria in a recent 2-1 loss. Set pieces are a major edge for Algeria: they averaged 6.5 corners per game in qualifying and scored 0.35 goals per game from dead balls, while Jordan allowed 0.25 goals per game from set pieces and were undone by two Algerian corner goals in that 2-1 defeat. Statistically, the game tilts on whether Jordan can keep the shot count under ~10 and xG allowed under ~1.2 while converting a low-volume attack (often <30% possession and ~0.7–1.0 xG) through Al Tamari and Amer Jamous in transition; if Algeria sustain their typical 60%+ possession, >14 shots and 1.5+ xG with Mahrez/Aouar controlling set pieces and central progression, they justify the market edge and win this fixture most of the time.