🇵🇦Panamavs🇭🇷Croatia

Panama arrive winless with 2 losses in the group and only 1 goal from open play, averaging roughly 0.7 xG per match in qualifying and leaning on Cecilio Waterman (5 goals in Concacaf qualifiers) and José Fajardo (4 goals) in a direct 4-2-3-1 built on early crosses and transition. Croatia, who lost 4–2 to England before beating Panama 1–0 with 58% possession, 6–8 shots and a 1.66–0.62 xG edge, come in as the more controlled side, using a 4-3-3 with 55–60% average possession and conceding under 1.0 xGA per qualifier while Ante Budimir and Petar Musa combined for 9 goals in UEFA qualifying. The key duel is Croatia’s left channel (Budimir + overlapping full‑back) attacking Panama’s right side, where Édgar Bárcenas offers 0.20–0.25 expected assists per 90 going forward but leaves space that Croatia exploited in the group match, generating both on‑target shots from that zone. In central buildup, Nikola Vlašić (around 0.35 non‑penalty xG+xA per 90 in qualifying) versus Panama’s double pivot will determine whether Croatia sustain pressure high or are forced into slower, harmless circulation. Set pieces slightly favor Croatia given Budimir’s aerial numbers (over 0.30 set‑piece xG in qualifying) and Panama conceding over 30% of their qualifying goals from dead balls, while Panama’s best chance lies in high‑tempo pressing phases that previously produced 7 corners to 2 against Croatia but only 1 shot on target. Statistically, the match tilts on whether Panama can push total shots into double digits and create at least 1.0 xG (they were held to 0.62 last time) while keeping Croatia under roughly 1.2 xG; if the game repeats the earlier shot and xG profile, Croatia’s 62% no‑vig win probability is justified.