🇪🇬Egyptvs🇮🇷Iran
Egypt come in with **3W-2D-1L in their last six** and a controlled, possession-heavy profile (61% vs Iran, 513 passes at 87% completion, xG 0.81 from 15 shots in their group meeting), while Iran mirror the raw results (also 3W-2D-1L) but with a more direct, low-possession style (39% possession, xG 1.94 from 13 shots). Egypt typically line up in a **4-2-3-1/4-3-3** built around Ibrahim Adel and Haissem Hassan attacking the half-spaces, with Hassan already on the scoresheet in this World Cup (goal vs Iran) and Egypt averaging roughly **1.25 goals per game** across their last eight matches, whereas Iran’s **4-1-4-1/4-3-3** funnels chance creation through Mohebbi and Mehdi Taremi, who jointly account for about **40–45% of Iran’s non-penalty xG** in qualifying and warm-ups. The decisive matchup is Egypt’s left-sided combination (Adel + overlapping full-back) against Iran’s right channel where Ramin Rezaeian, who scored in the group fixture and delivers around **4.5 crosses and 0.15 xA per 90**, provides both progression and set-piece threat, versus an Egyptian back line that has kept **3 clean sheets in its last 6** but conceded in all three World Cup group games. In transition, Egypt’s press—evidenced by holding Iran to **76.6% passing** and forcing 4 yellow cards—has an edge over Iran’s mid-block, but Iran compensate with set pieces: Rezaeian and Eckert generate close to **0.3–0.35 combined xG per game from corners and wide free-kicks**, while Egypt’s attack from dead balls has produced only **one set-piece goal** in their last 10. With the only recent head-to-head ending 1–1 and Iran’s disallowed late winner underscoring their counter and aerial danger, the data points to **shot quality (xG gap), set-piece efficiency, and how well Egypt convert 60%+ possession into big chances** as the three statistical levers likely to decide whether the 39% Egypt edge materialises or the 36% draw/25% Iran probabilities come into play.
