🇳🇿New Zealandvs🇧🇪Belgium

Belgium arrive with **9 goals for, 2 against, and 2 clean sheets in their last 5** (2W-3D-0L), while New Zealand’s build-up form is far shakier at **7 scored, 11 conceded, LDLLW** over the same span, underscoring the market’s 79% lean to Belgium’s win probability. New Zealand’s 4-2-3-1 relies on **McCowatt, Randall, Just** combining in transition (each contributing multiple goals across qualifying, with the side averaging roughly **1.4 xG per game but over 1.7 xGA**), but it structurally exposes the double pivot against Belgium’s 3-4-2-1, where **Raskin**’s high-volume ball progression (top-tier long-pass completion and ~0.20 xA/90) feeds **De Bruyne** and **Fernandez-Pardo**, who together contributed more than **10 goals + assists in qualifying** and World Cup group play. The decisive matchup is Belgium’s right half-space overload (De Bruyne drifting off the line, Fernandez-Pardo attacking the inside channel) against New Zealand’s left side, where McCowatt and Randall have combined for attacking output (several goals and assists) but the full-back behind them has been targeted, with New Zealand allowing **11 goals in their last 5** and frequently conceding from cut-backs and second-phase entries. Set pieces tilt heavily to Belgium: across qualifying and the group stage, they have scored **more than a quarter of their goals from dead balls**, with De Bruyne’s delivery driving an xG per game from set plays close to **0.4**, while New Zealand’s defensive set-piece record is poor (multiple goals conceded from corners and free-kicks, and only **1 clean sheet** in their last 10 competitive fixtures). Statistically, Belgium’s edge in **shot volume (often 12–15 attempts per match), possession above 55%, and xG differential consistently above +0.8**, combined with New Zealand’s negative xG and goal difference trend, means that if New Zealand do not radically improve their pressing efficiency and set-piece defending, the most likely pattern is Belgium generating **2+ expected goals** and winning the territorial and chance-quality battle in line with the implied odds.