Belgium should have the ball for long spells, with De Bruyne setting the tempo and Belgium’s wide pace trying to pull New Zealand’s compact block apart. New Zealand’s best route is the direct, low-event game: survive the first wave, win second balls, and spring McCowatt, Randall, and Just quickly into the channels behind Belgium’s advancing full-backs. The key battles are Belgium’s circulation against New Zealand’s central congestion, plus whether New Zealand can make the aerial and second-ball contests messy enough to stop Belgium building rhythm. If Belgium score first, the market tilt should show up in control and shot volume; if New Zealand keep it level deep into the match, the draw path becomes live through set pieces and one or two fast breaks.
