🏴Englandvs🇨🇩DR Congo
England arrive in Atlanta with four wins and one draw in their last five (10 goals for, 2 against, 2 clean sheets), while DR Congo have ground their way into a first-ever World Cup knockout on the back of a low-block, counter-attacking game that held Portugal to a draw. England under Tuchel are expected to line up in a **4-2-3-1**, averaging roughly 60% possession and over 2.0 xG per game in the group stage, against DR Congo’s **5-4-1/5-3-2** that has kept their non-penalty xG conceded under 1.0 in all three group matches. The decisive duels are Harry Kane (2 goals, 1 assist and ~0.55 npxG per 90 in this World Cup) working between the lines against DR Congo captain Cédric Bakambu (2 goals, 0.30 npxG/90, key outlet in transition), and England’s wide forwards (Toney/Watkins combining for 30+ league goals in 2025-26) attacking the channels patrolled by Meschack Elia (1 goal, 1 assist, most progressive carries for DR Congo) and their wing-backs. Set pieces are a major edge for England: they have already taken 24 corners in the tournament and are projected at roughly 1.5 expected goals from corners alone, while DR Congo’s only group-stage goal from dead balls came from a single near-post routine. With both teams pressing selectively—England triggering high presses off backward passes, DR Congo only engaging in the middle third—history (no previous senior competitive meeting and a general trend of top seeds winning these Round of 32 ties) plus the underlying numbers suggest that shot volume, set-piece xG and England’s ability to sustain pressure against DR Congo’s deep block will statistically decide whether the 74% implied win probability holds.
