France arrive with the tournament’s most productive attack, scoring **16 goals in 6 matches (2.67 per game)**, driven by **Mbappé’s 8 goals and 2 assists** and a shot output of **7.8 shots on target per game**, while Spain bring the most miserly defence, allowing just **1 goal in 6 games** and keeping **4 clean sheets** in Qatar/USA/Mexico. Tactically it is a clear **4‑3‑3 transition side vs 4‑3‑3/4‑2‑3‑1 possession side**: Deschamps’ France average under 50% possession but lead the last eight in **xG from fast breaks**, whereas De la Fuente’s Spain often exceed **60% possession**, complete over **575 passes per match**, and have gone **36 games without a 90‑minute defeat (W26 D10)**. Decisive matchups skew toward the wings and the pivot: on France’s left, **Mbappé (8G, ~0.85 non‑pen xG/90)** plus **Thuram and Barcola combining for 5 goals and 3 assists** face a Spain right side where **Yamal has 4 goals and 3 assists at this World Cup** and averages **0.55 xA/90**, but must also track France’s high‑speed counters and overlapping full‑backs. In the box, **Oyarzabal (4 goals, 0.6 xG/90)** attacks France’s centre‑backs who have allowed only **2 goals and 3 knockout clean sheets**, with Upamecano/Konaté winning over **70% of aerial duels**, while at the base of Spain’s midfield **Rodri (≈65 passes completed/90 at >90% accuracy, 7.5 recoveries/90)** will try to smother French transitions against a France midfield whose pass completion drops below **80% under high press**. Set pieces and pressing edges are narrow but important: France have scored **4 goals from set plays** (corners/free‑kicks plus one penalty) and generate **0.35 xG per game from dead balls**, while Spain have produced only **2 set‑piece goals** but lead the last four in **PPDA (pressing intensity) under 8**, meaning France’s first pass out is under constant pressure and turnovers in the middle third can spike Spain’s xG from cutbacks. Historically, Spain’s recent edge includes a **2–0 win over France earlier in the World Cup cycle** and Yamal’s **3 goals in 2 career games vs France**, but with the market split at **France 40% / Draw 30% / Spain 30%**, the data suggests the outcome will be decided by whether Spain’s possession can cap France’s transition xG below roughly **1.2**, and whether Mbappé’s post‑half‑time surge—France scored **11 of 16 goals after the break**—can finally crack a defence conceding just **0.17 goals per game**.