Spain arrive as a near-elite favorite with a no‑vig implied win probability of 42% built on a tournament-best defensive profile: 7 goals scored and just 1 conceded in their last 5 World Cup matches, allowing only 0.3 xG per game and 10 shots on target total across the tournament. Argentina counter with a 26% implied win share and the most prolific attack left in the field, hitting 12 goals in their last 5 matches but conceding 5 in that span, leaning on transition and individual shot quality rather than volume. Tactically it’s Spain’s 4‑2‑3‑1/3‑1‑2‑4 positional play (64% average possession, 28 nine‑plus-pass sequences per 90) versus Argentina’s 4‑4‑2/4‑diamond‑2 mid‑block, with Spain’s high line and short build-up inviting Argentina’s vertical counters into Lautaro Martínez and Lionel Messi, who combine for double‑digit non‑penalty goals this cycle and ~0.6–0.7 npxG per 90 between them. Decisive matchups are Lamine Yamal (right wing, averaging ~0.35 xA and 4+ progressive carries per 90 at this World Cup) attacking Argentina’s left-back, Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain’s striker, ~0.45 xG per 90 and 3 goals plus 1 assist in qualifying and finals) versus Argentina’s centre-backs under box defence, and Messi plus Nico Paz in the right half-space against Rodri’s single-pivot screen, where Spain have limited central entries to fewer than 5 completed passes into the D per match. Set pieces and pressing tilts favor Spain: they generate ~5 corners per game and have scored multiple goals from rehearsed routines, while their high press (10+ turnovers in the opposition half per 90) and tactical fouling in midfield have kept every opponent under 0.8 xG, whereas Argentina have conceded from 3 different dead‑ball situations and press sporadically from a mid‑block. Historically, Spain and Argentina have traded blows in friendlies (notably Argentina’s 4–1 win in 2010 and Spain’s 6–1 in 2018), but with Spain now posting one of the most extreme possession/defensive finals profiles ever and Argentina carrying the highest shot conversion in the tournament, the statistics say the game is most likely decided by whether Spain’s chance suppression (xG against) continues to hold versus Argentina’s above‑expected finishing, especially on fast breaks and Messi-led transitions against Spain’s high line.