England’s edge is the cleaner attacking profile: in Group L they were **2-1-0, 6-2 goal difference, 7 points** after the Croatia win, while Croatia sat **2-0-1, 5-5, 6 points**; England also went into the tournament on a relatively controlled run, with **five of their last six** finishing **under 2.5 goals** and them scoring first in **nine of their last ten**. Croatia’s recent form was more volatile, with **nine scored and seven conceded across their last five** entering the match, which matches the open feel of the 4-2 result and the fact that England had already beaten them **4-2** in Dallas. Stylistically this is a **3-4-2-1 Croatia vs England’s higher-tempo, more direct 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 look**, with Croatia trying to build through **Modrić/Kovačić** and find **Musa** between lines, while England leaned on Kane’s central gravity and runners beyond him. The matchup most likely to swing it was **Harry Kane vs Croatia’s back three**, because Kane scored **2** in the June 17 meeting and England generated an expected-goals total of **2.8** in that game, while Croatia’s compact shape still conceded four; if Croatia cannot isolate Kane, England’s second-wave creators become the next problem. The second key duel is **Kane/Ollie Watkins/Ivan Toney against Croatia’s center-backs and wing-backs**, because England’s width and box occupation punished Croatia after halftime, with Bellingham and Rashford arriving from deeper zones once the central lane opened. A third decisive area is **Croatia’s set pieces vs England’s box defending and counter-press**, because Croatia’s best path is to compress the game, win dead balls, and attack second balls, while England’s advantage is their ability to recover possession quickly and turn transitions into high-value shots. Head-to-head also leans England: they had **five wins to Croatia’s three and one draw** in recent meetings, were **unbeaten in the last three**, and both teams had scored in **five of the last seven** H2Hs, so a single clean sheet likely matters more than pure possession share. Statistically, the deciding line was likely: **England’s shot volume and Kane chance quality vs Croatia’s ability to keep the match below about 2.5 expected goals and force set-piece parity**; if England reach the box repeatedly and score first, Croatia’s comeback profile is weaker than England’s control profile.