RotoBot AI

De-vigged Match Odds (1X2)

ENG55%

DRAW25%

CRO20%

Model pick: England ML— confidence

Total Goals 2.5

Over

+105

Under

-135

Draftkings

Both Teams To Score

Yes

47%

+100

No

53%

-124

Draw No Bet

ENG

-350

CRO

+260

The Breakdown

England’s **55% win edge** fits a matchup where they can press Croatia into errors, then attack quickly through wide areas and around Harry Kane’s central gravity. Croatia’s best route is to slow the game, keep possession through midfield control, and use Budimir or Musa as an outlet while Vlasic connects transitions behind England’s advanced shape. The key battle is England’s pressing and vertical tempo against Croatia’s ability to resist that pressure and keep the ball long enough to blunt the game state. If England win second balls and isolate Croatia’s full-backs, they should create the clearer chances; if Croatia control midfield rhythm and force a lower-tempo match, the draw becomes live.

32 apps · 5 in last 5

Ollie Watkins

Forward · Aston Villa

16G · 3A

37 apps · 5 in last 5

Harry Kane

Forward · Bayern München

14G · 2A

13 apps · 5 in last 5

Morgan Rogers

Midfielder · Aston Villa

10G · 6A

37 apps · 2 in last 5

Anthony Gordon

Forward · Newcastle United

10G · 2A

12 apps · 0 in last 5

🇭🇷Croatia

Ante Budimir

Forward · Osasuna

17G · 0A

37 apps · 1 in last 5

Petar Musa

Forward · FC Dallas

12G · 2A

13 apps · 3 in last 5

Nikola Vlasic

Midfielder · Torino

8G · 3A

37 apps · 1 in last 5

Martin Baturina

Midfielder · Como

6G · 3A

29 apps · 0 in last 5

Mario Pasalic

Midfielder · Atalanta

3G · 4A

33 apps · 0 in last 5

498 player prop markets analyzed · sorted by model edge

🇭🇷

Petar Musa

Goals + Assists Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+290

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

14 goals assists/13 apps (shrunk 0.85/game); Over 0.5 -> model 57% vs market 26%

🇭🇷

Petar Musa

Goals Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+400

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

12g/13app (shrunk 0.64/match), 3g last5; model 47% vs market 20%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Dan Burn

Shots on Target Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+400

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

8 shots on target/11 apps (shrunk 0.62/game); Over 0.5 -> model 46% vs market 20%

🇭🇷

Dominik Kotarski

Fouls Committed Over 0.5

FAIR

Best Odds

+3000

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

0 fouls committed/8 apps (shrunk 0.35/game); Over 0.5 -> model 29% vs market 3%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Ivan Toney

Goals Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+175

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

32g/32app (shrunk 0.88/match), 5g last5; model 59% vs market 36%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Ivan Toney

Goals + Assists Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+120

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

39 goals assists/32 apps (shrunk 1.09/game); Over 0.5 -> model 66% vs market 45%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Dean Henderson

Fouls Committed Over 0.5

FAIR

Best Odds

+3000

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

0 fouls committed/12 apps (shrunk 0.26/game); Over 0.5 -> model 23% vs market 3%

🇭🇷

Martin Erlic

Shots Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+215

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

11 shots/18 apps (shrunk 0.70/game); Over 0.5 -> model 50% vs market 32%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Anthony Gordon

Goals + Assists Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+175

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

12 goals assists/12 apps (shrunk 0.78/game); Over 0.5 -> model 54% vs market 36%

🇭🇷

Josip Sutalo

Offsides Over 0.5

FAIR

Best Odds

+1900

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

1 offsides/6 apps (shrunk 0.20/game); Over 0.5 -> model 18% vs market 5%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Harry Kane

Goals Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

+130

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

14g/13app (shrunk 0.81/match), 5g last5; model 56% vs market 43%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Dan Burn

Shots Over 0.5

VALUE

Best Odds

-105

draftkings

Model

—

Edge

+—

11 shots/11 apps (shrunk 1.00/game); Over 0.5 -> model 63% vs market 51%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

32G

Top scorer

109

Squad goals

49

Squad assists

26.6

Avg age

Leading the line: Ivan Toney (32 club goals)

World Cup pedigree

1

Titles

11-13

KO W-L

1-3

Shootouts

0.82

Cards/m

Best finish: Champions (1966) · 16 tournaments

🇭🇷Croatia

17G

Top scorer

62

Squad goals

23

Squad assists

27.9

Avg age

Leading the line: Ante Budimir (17 club goals)

World Cup pedigree

0

Titles

9-3

KO W-L

4-0

Shootouts

2.07

Cards/m

Best finish: Runners-up (2018) · 6 tournaments

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