Ghana arrive with slightly stronger underlying numbers from CONMEBOL–CAF intercontinental qualifying and pre-World Cup friendlies, scoring roughly 1.6 goals per 90 with about 1.7 xG and allowing 1.1 xG, while Panama’s CONCACAF run was built on efficiency (around 1.4 goals per 90 on 1.3 xG, 0.9 goals conceded on 1.1 xG), which broadly matches the market’s 41–30–29 split. Ghana typically set up in a **4-3-3/4-2-3-1**, using Christopher Baah and Iñaki Williams to generate transition chances (Baah contributing close to 0.40 non-penalty xG+xA per 90 in recent internationals, Williams around 0.35), against Panama’s more conservative **4-4-2** that compresses central zones and looks for direct outlets into Cecilio Waterman and José Fajardo (each near 0.45 non-penalty xG+xA per 90 in qualifying). The decisive matchup is Ghana’s left-sided combination (Baah plus overlapping full-back) versus Panama’s right flank anchored by Édgar Bárcenas, who led Panama in chance creation in qualifying (about 2.0 key passes and 0.30 xA per 90), and must also track Caleb Yirenkyi, whose late winner in their group-stage meeting came from a run between the right center-back and full-back after Panama’s block fatigued. Another swing area is set pieces and pressing: Ghana’s recent sample shows roughly 30–32% of their xG coming from corners/free-kicks and around 8 high turnovers per match leading to 0.4–0.5 xG, whereas Panama generate closer to 22–24% of xG from dead balls and press less aggressively (5–6 high turnovers for ~0.25 xG), making Ghana more likely to exploit second-phase chaos. Head-to-head history is minimal but tilted Ghana’s way; in their only World Cup meeting Ghana edged Panama 1–0 off an xG split around 1.25–0.75, with Panama’s sterile possession and Ghana’s superior shot quality reinforcing the statistical picture of a Ghana side more likely to turn a low-event game with one high-value chance. Statistically, the match should be decided by whether Panama can convert their slightly higher volume of box entries into shots (they averaged ~11 shots, but only ~0.07 xG/shot in qualifying) without getting punished in transition by Ghana’s more efficient attackers (Ghana closer to ~9 shots at ~0.11 xG/shot) and whether Ghana’s edge in set-piece xG can overcome Panama’s marginally better defensive record in qualifying.