Canada arrive with one loss in their last 11 (5W,5D, eight clean sheets) and an underlying World Cup group-stage profile of 2.35 xG for and 0.85 xG against per 90, while Bosnia & Herzegovina’s qualifying run featured 1.55 xG for and 1.20 xG against with only three clean sheets in their last 12 competitive fixtures. Expect a **4-2-3-1 Canada** built on Jesse Marsch’s high-press (PPDA around 8.5 in qualifiers, top 10% in the field) and wide overloads through Tajon Buchanan and Promise David against Bosnia’s more compact **4-3-3/4-1-4-1 block**, whose mid-block allowed just 9.3 shots per game in UEFA qualifying but conceded 32% of goals from crosses. The decisive duels are Jonathan David (qualifying: 7 goals, 3 assists, ~0.55 non-pen xG/90) attacking the half-spaces around veteran Edin Dzeko (6 goals, ~0.40 npxG/90, 0.15 xA/90) and ball-winning pivot Jovo Lukic (World Cup group: 1 goal, 2.4 tackles + interceptions/90), plus Canada’s aggressive left-side tandem Promise David (club season: 11 goals, 7 assists, 0.45 xG + 0.25 xA/90) versus Bosnia’s right-back, who faced 5.8 crosses against per 90 in qualifying. Set pieces are a swing factor: Canada averaged 6.1 corners and 0.35 set-piece xG per game in qualifying but converted only 11%, while Bosnia generated 0.30 set-piece xG and scored 6 of their last 18 goals from restarts, with Dzeko and Lukic combining for 0.18 set-piece xG/90. With the previous World Cup meeting already producing a tight 1-1 (Canada 61% possession, 13–8 shots, xG 1.25–0.98, corners 9–4), the data points to pressing efficiency (turnovers in the middle third), wide-service volume into David/Larin versus Bosnia’s aerial back line, and which side better exploits set-piece xG as the statistical levers likely to separate a match priced at roughly **Canada 52% / Draw 27% / Bosnia 20%**.