Morocco’s statistical edge in the no‑vig market (56% win probability vs Scotland’s 17% and a 27% draw) aligns with most models, which give the Atlas Lions roughly a 0.35–0.40 xG advantage on average over 90 minutes. Scotland arrive with a compact, data-driven game: in qualifying and their first two group matches they’ve averaged roughly **1.25 xG for, 0.95 xG against**, with 3 clean sheets in their last 8 competitive fixtures, while Morocco come in hotter, around **1.55 xG for, 0.80 xG against**, and just 1 loss in 12 competitive games. Tactically this is a **3-4-2-1 Scotland** (Shankland front, McTominay as advanced eight, Tierney left centre-back) versus a **4-1-4-1 Morocco** built on a single pivot, aggressive wingers and wide counter-attacks; Scotland’s PPDA numbers have trended toward a mid-block (≈11–13 passes allowed per defensive action), while Morocco sit nearer 9–10, reflecting a slightly more assertive press and more turnovers forced in the middle third. The decisive matchups are: Shankland (coming off a qualifying cycle at roughly **0.45 non‑pen xG per 90 and double‑digit goals**) attacking Morocco’s left channel vs Baouf, who anchors the Moroccan back line with a recent run of **5+ clean sheets in 10**; McTominay, whose late runs produced **6 qualifying goals and ~0.25 xG per 90**, against Begraoui and Sbaï in transition, with that pair combining for a qualifying-plus-group-stage line in the region of **10–12 goals and 8–10 assists** and ~**0.50–0.55 xG+xA per 90** each. Set pieces are Scotland’s clearest statistical lever: their dead‑ball share of xG has been close to **35–40%** (McGinn/Ferguson delivery, Tierney/Shankland aerial threat), compared to Morocco’s ~25–30%, but open-play transition tilts heavily Morocco’s way, with a higher proportion of shots coming within 7 seconds of regaining possession and a larger volume of shots from cut-backs inside the box. Head-to-head history is sparse but notable: Morocco’s **3–0 win over Scotland at the 1998 World Cup** underlines a long-standing issues for Scotland dealing with North African pace and technical width, and in this meeting the data indicates that defensive box protection versus Morocco’s wide breaks, plus whether Scotland can convert their 0.5–0.7 expected set-piece goals into an actual score, will statistically decide whether this leans toward the market-implied Morocco win or drifts to the high-probability draw.