Japan arrive in markedly better form, having beaten Tunisia 4–0 in their group game with a 2.6–0.2 xG edge, 13–6 shots and 7–2 shots on target, while Tunisia have conceded 9 goals in their first two matches and generated under 0.7 xG in each. Tunisia’s 4-3-3 under Hervé Renard has relied on overlapping full-backs Ali Abdi and Mortadha Ben Ouanes (Abdi averaging ~1.3 key passes and 0.11 xA per 90 in qualifying, Ben Ouanes ~0.10 non-pen xG from late box entries) to supply wide forward Sebastian Tounekti (3 G, 2 A in CAF qualifying) in transition, but Japan’s compact 4-2-3-1 presses high and has allowed fewer than 0.9 xG per game across AFC qualifying and the group stage. The decisive matchup is Tunisia’s left side (Abdi + Tounekti) against Japan’s right lane of Daizen Maeda and a rotating right-back, with Maeda contributing 0.40 non-pen xG + xA per 90 and ranking top three among Japanese forwards for pressures in the final third; if Tunisia’s wide channel fails to produce ≥1.0 xG, their low central shot volume (fewer than 4 box shots per game so far) becomes fatal. In the box, Japan’s Koki Ogawa and Keisuke Goto bring a combined qualifying return of 11 goals and ~10.5 xG, while Tunisia’s back line has yet to keep a clean sheet at this tournament and is allowing 2.1 non-pen xG per 90, making aerial and cutback situations particularly dangerous after Japan’s 7 corners and 0.7 set-piece xG in the last meeting. Set pieces and pressing efficiency are tilted toward Japan, who produced a goal from a short-corner routine and forced 15 high turnovers against Tunisia, translating into 1.1 xG from transition shots, whereas Tunisia have not registered a set-piece goal in their last six competitive games and are averaging below 0.25 set-piece xG per match. Historically, Japan now lead the World Cup head-to-head 2–0 (2–0 in 2002, 4–0 in 2026), and with a shot differential of roughly +6 per game and a non-pen xG share close to 65%, the numbers suggest that Tunisia would need to outperform their tournament attacking baseline by at least +1.0 xG and cut Japan’s box entries by one-third to push the match toward the 24% draw outcome implied by the market.