Belgium arrive with 3W-2D in their last five (10 GF, 3 GA), averaging 2.0 xG per game in that stretch, while Iran are unbeaten in five (3W-2D) with a tighter 1.3 xG for and 0.8 xG against profile built on compact mid-block defending. Expect Belgium’s 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 possession shape (over 60% possession vs Egypt, 23 shots and 1.82 xG vs Iran) to clash with Iran’s 4-1-4-1 that kept Belgium to 0 goals from 23 shots and funneled play wide into low-value crossing zones in their recent 0-0. The key attacking duel is Kevin De Bruyne, who came into the tournament averaging roughly 0.35 non-pen xG and 0.30 xA per 90 for Belgium over the last year, combining with Matias Fernandez-Pardo (around 0.45 goals + assists per 90) against Iran’s center-back pairing that helped Alireza Beiranvand post seven saves and a 100% shot-stopping record in that 0-0. For Iran, Mehdi Taremi (22 goals and 7 assists in his last full club season, ~0.55 npxG/90) and Mohammad Mohebbi (double-digit goal contributions, ~0.40 G+A/90) target Belgium’s high line and a back four that allowed 1.0 goals per game in qualifying, with Dennis Eckert’s pressing metrics (around 17–18 pressures per 90) key to disrupting Belgium’s first phase. Set pieces are a swing factor: Belgium generated 4 corners and ~0.35 xG from dead balls alone in the last meeting, while Iran’s qualifying run featured over 25% of their goals from set plays, making De Bruyne’s delivery vs Iran’s zonal scheme a pivotal battle. Historically, the World Cup head-to-head is now 0-0-1 with 0-0 on the scoreboard, and statistically the game tilts on whether Belgium can finally convert their volume (2+ xG per game in most recent friendlies) against Iran’s low-block that has delivered multiple clean sheets and held opponents under 1.0 xG in four of their last five competitive matches.