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Group Stage · Group J · Dallas (Arlington)
🇦🇷
Argentina
2 - 0
Final
🇦🇹
Austria
Jun 22, 5:00 PM UTC · AT&T Stadium
Box score
Argentina
Lionel Messi⚽2
Emiliano Martínez🧤1
Facundo Medina🅰1 🟨
Leandro Paredes🟨
Austria
Alexander Schlager🧤2
Konrad Laimer🟨
Stefan Posch🟨
De-vigged Match Odds (1X2)
ARG65%
DRAW22%
AUT13%
Model pick: Argentina ML65% confidence
Total Goals 2.5
Over
-115
Under
-110
Fanatics
Both Teams To Score
Yes
46%
+110
No
54%
-130
Draw No Bet
ARG
-560
AUT
+480
The Breakdown

Argentina arrive as heavy favorites with a +7 goal difference from qualifying group play (8 scored, 1 conceded; 2.67 xG per game, 0.55 xGA), while Austria scraped through with a 0 goal difference (6 scored, 6 conceded; 1.45 xG, 1.40 xGA), reflecting a clear statistical gap in both attacking and defensive efficiency. Expect a **4-2-3-1 Argentina** focused on central overloads and controlled possession (57–60% average World Cup possession, ~12 high recoveries per match) against Rangnick’s **4-4-2/4-2-3-1 Austria** built on a high press (PPDA around 8.5, ~18 pressed sequences per game) and direct transitions, creating a classic control-vs-press clash. The decisive duel is Messi and Lautaro vs Austria’s central block: Messi enters on 4 World Cup goals (including a hat-trick vs Algeria) from ~2.9 xG plus 2.1 xA, while Lautaro adds 2 goals from 1.6 xG; they face a back line that has allowed 6 goals and ~1.4 xGA per match, with only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 competitive fixtures. At the other end, Kalajdzic (3 goals, 0.9 non-pen xG, 0.15 xG/shot) and Baumgartner (1 goal, 1 assist, ~0.30 xG + 0.20 xA per 90) will target Argentina’s high but well-structured rest-defense that has limited opponents to 1 goal and ~0.5 xG per game, making Austria’s set pieces (roughly 35% of their World Cup xG so far) and first-pressure wins in Argentina’s half their best route to an upset. Historically the fixture is balanced (1 win each, 1 draw), but recent World Cup data shows Argentina generating roughly 2.1 xG per match vs Austria’s 0.8–1.0, so the game statistically hinges on whether Austria’s press can disrupt Argentina’s build-up long enough to keep Messi’s shot and key-pass volume (often 5–7 shots, 3–4 key passes per match) below his usual threshold and whether Kalajdzic can convert limited chances against a defense averaging a clean sheet in two of every three competitive games.

Forecasting and informational only — not betting advice.