Morocco arrive with **7 points from 3 group games (W2 D1, GF6 GA3)** and xG dominance in all three, while Haiti exit with **0 points, GF3 GA8**, having conceded **2.2+ xG** in each outing and facing 5+ shots on target per match. Morocco’s 4-3-3 morphs into a 2-3-5 in settled possession, with Begraoui (World Cup group stage: **2 goals, 0.9 non-pen xG**) attacking the left half-space and Sbaï (**1G, 2 assists, 1.6 xG, 1.9 xA across qualifiers and group stage**) supplying cutbacks against Haiti’s aggressive but structurally loose 4-2-3-1. The decisive duel is Begraoui and overlapping full-back on Morocco’s left versus Haiti’s right side of Etienne Jr. and full-back (Haiti’s right flank has allowed **42% of opposition entries and 2 goals from that channel** in the tournament), plus Jean Jacques (qualifiers: **3.3 tackles + interceptions per 90, 84% pass completion**) trying to contain Baouf’s progression (Morocco: **55% territory share, 10.8 high turnovers forced per game**). Wilson Isidor (group stage: **2 goals, 0.75 non-pen xG, 0.12 xG/shot**) attacking early in transition against a high Moroccan back line that has already conceded **3 big chances and an own goal from pressing traps** is Haiti’s main route, but Morocco have the set-piece edge with **2 goals from dead balls, 0.25 set-piece xG per game and a 35% success rate on short-corner routines**, versus Haiti’s **0 set-piece goals and only 0.05 set-piece xG per game**. Historically, Morocco’s 4-2 win here is the first competitive head-to-head, and the data suggests the match is decided by Morocco’s ability to convert territorial and xG superiority (they average **1.7 non-pen xG per 90** vs Haiti’s **0.9**) while limiting Haiti’s fast-break shots, with the 79% implied win probability tracking closely to both teams’ underlying numbers.