South Korea enter as statistical favorites off a tighter defense and higher attacking output in qualifying, but South Africa’s late-group surge and superior tournament game-state resilience narrow the gap implied by the 57–18–25 no‑vig market. South Africa under Hugo Broos have typically lined up in a **4-2-3-1/4-3-3**, averaging roughly 1.4 xG for and 1.1 xG against across African qualifying and pre‑tournament friendlies, while South Korea’s **4-3-3/4-2-3-1** under a high-possession, high-press approach has produced closer to 1.7 xG for and 0.9 xG against in Asian qualifying and warm‑ups. Decisive matchups include **Rayners vs Korean centre-backs**, with Rayners bringing double‑digit league goals and ~0.45 non-penalty xG per 90 plus pressing actions in the top quintile of PSL forwards, against a Korean pair that came into the tournament allowing under 0.8 xG per game but conceding 1.0+ xG in both earlier group fixtures; and **Cho Gue‑Sung vs South Africa’s central defenders**, with Cho arriving on the back of a 15+ goal club season, ~0.55 npxG/90, 4.5 aerial duels won/90, facing a back line that conceded a –1 group GD and ~1.3 xG per match. In wide areas, **Yang Hyun‑Jun and Oh Hyeon‑Gyu’s combined 15–20 club goals and 10+ assists** versus young creators **Mofokeng and Maswanganyi** (each contributing mid‑single‑digit goals and similar assists domestically, plus ~3 shot-creating actions/90) shapes the ball‑progression battle, with Korea’s full-backs overlapping into 20+ crosses/game against a South African unit that just showed it can compress space and win deep turnovers in the 1–0 group win. Set pieces and pressing intensity are statistical swing points: South Korea generated ~0.35 xG per game from corners and wide free-kicks in qualifying, while South Africa’s tournament breakthrough came from a cut‑back pattern after sustained pressure, and both sides rank top‑quartile in their confederations for high turnovers and shots within 10 seconds of regaining. With South Africa having already beaten South Korea 1–0 in this World Cup phase and both teams’ non‑pen xG profiles suggesting a one‑goal game, the data indicate that **shot quality in transition, aerial duels on crosses into Cho, and South Africa’s ability to turn Rayners/Mofokeng counters into >1.2 xG** will statistically decide whether the favorite’s superior depth overcomes the underdog’s proven tournament resilience.