The Netherlands should control territory and most of the ball, with a 4-2-3-1 that uses de Jong/Gravenberch to build cleanly and then release width and runners around the box, while Tunisia will likely sit compact, protect the area, and look to break through Ali Abdi and Sebastian Tounekti in transition. The key battle is Netherlands’ right-sided pressure and late box arrivals against Tunisia’s low block and set-piece threat, because Tunisia’s best chances come from quick counters and dead balls rather than sustained possession. If Donyell Malen and Brian Brobbey can turn Dutch possession into early chances, Tunisia’s structure gets stretched; if not, the game can become a slow, physical squeeze where one set piece or turnover decides it. Jan Paul van Hecke’s role in defending transitions and attacking set pieces matters too, since Tunisia’s route back into the match is narrow but real.
