France arrive with two wins, 5.1 non‑pen xG for and 1.6 against in the group, while Norway have also won twice but with a much wilder profile: 7 goals from roughly 4.3 non‑pen xG and 3.2 xG conceded, reflecting both their vertical threat and defensive looseness. Norway’s 4‑3‑3/4‑2‑3‑1 is built on direct progression (58.6% of passes completed in their own half, 41.4% in the opposition) and fast entries to Sørloth and Haaland, whereas France’s 4‑3‑3/4‑2‑3‑1 tilts the field (58.6% of passes in the opponent’s half) and compresses the game around Mbappé and Thuram’s movement between the lines. The decisive matchup data points are Haaland’s tournament output (3 goals, 0.45 non‑pen xG per 90, 0.12 xA) and Sørloth’s penalty‑box presence (1 goal, 1 assist, 0.32 xG/0.20 xA per 90) against a France back line that has allowed only 0.8 xG per game and kept one clean sheet, plus Mbappé (2 goals, 1 assist, 0.63 non‑pen xG/0.35 xA per 90) and Barcola (1 goal, 2.1 xG, 7 progressive carries into the box) attacking Norway’s full‑backs who have already conceded 3 big chances. On set pieces, Norway have generated 1.0 xG from corners and free‑kicks (one Haaland goal, one Schjelderup shot at 0.18 xG), but France have both volume and efficiency, with 0.9 set‑piece xG, a Thuram header goal, and a defensive record of allowing only 0.2 set‑piece xG in two matches. Historically, France lead the series 7–5 with 4 draws and a +9 goal difference, including a 4–0 friendly in 2014, and models give them roughly a 59–60% win probability versus Norway’s ~20%, in line with the no‑vig market split; statistically, the game is likely decided by whether Norway’s high‑risk transition plan (10 big chances created already but 3 goals conceded) can outstrip France’s superior shot quality and territorial control over 90 minutes, especially in the Mbappé–Haaland finishing duel and Norway’s ability to survive France’s sustained pressing in their own half.