Algeria arrive with the better *shot-for-shot attacking ceiling* but Austria carry the cleaner tournament balance: the market at Algeria 25% / draw 42% / Austria 33% is basically pricing a one-goal game, and the 3-3 in Kansas City confirmed how thin the margins are when Austria can turn matches into set-piece and late-game chaos. Algeria’s route has leaned on **Mahrez** as the chance-creation hub and **Aouar/Gouiri** as the inside-running finishers, while Austria’s attack has been more direct, with **Baumgartner** between the lines and **Kalajdzic** as the box target; in the actual 3-3, Kalajdzic’s 96th-minute equaliser was the decisive attacking event, and the match ended with both teams on 4 points and advancing. The clearest tactical clash is Algeria’s more possession-led, right-sided creation versus Austria’s vertical 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 pressing-and-crossing game: if Algeria can isolate Mahrez against a fullback and feed Gouiri early, they can pull Austria’s block apart, but if Austria force turnovers high and get Baumgartner/Kalajdzic in transition, they can pin Algeria back. The key matchup is **Mahrez vs Austria’s left side**, because Algeria’s best chance volume should come from his final ball and cutbacks, while **Kalajdzic vs Algeria’s center-backs** is the aerial swing factor, especially on dead balls and wide deliveries; in June 2026 Austria also showed they can live on late set-piece pressure, while Algeria’s knockout push was helped by goals from Gouiri and substitute Nadhir Benbouali against Jordan. Head-to-head history is essentially this one meeting, and it was a 3-3 draw rather than a stylistic runaway, which implies the statistical decider is likely to be **box efficiency** rather than possession: whichever side wins the shot-quality battle, protects second balls, and converts at least one set play should be the side most likely to beat the no-vig line.