Argentina were the clear statistical favorite at **77% no-vig** versus Jordan’s **8%**, and the matchup played out like a possession-dominant favorite against a compact underdog: Argentina won **3-1** and produced **2.13 xG to Jordan’s 0.74 xG** in the actual game sample, with Argentina finishing the group stage on a **perfect record** while Jordan’s first World Cup run ended in the groups. Jordan’s path was built around **Mousa Al Tamari** carrying transition threat, but their best attacking moment still came from **Altamari’s 55th-minute goal** in the 3-1 loss, underscoring how dependent they were on isolated breaks rather than sustained chance volume. Argentina’s structure likely looked like a **4-3-3/4-2-3-1** possession base with wide circulation and late-box arrivals, and the decisive clash was Jordan’s back line versus Argentina’s finishing quality: **Lautaro Martínez** scored a **31st-minute penalty** and **Lionel Messi** added the late third, with Messi’s tournament total reaching **6 goals** and a record **goal in seven straight World Cup matches**. The key individual duels were **Al Tamari vs Argentina’s right-sided defensive support**, **Lautaro Martínez vs Jordan’s center-backs**, and **Messi/Nico Paz between the lines**, where Argentina’s superior shot quality and chance creation should overwhelm Jordan if the game becomes open. On set pieces and pressure, Argentina had the edge because they could attack dead balls with Messi delivery and Martínez’s penalty-box timing, while Jordan’s best route was disrupting rhythm, compressing central space, and hoping for second-ball counters; the fact that Argentina still won by two despite Jordan’s goal shows the favorite’s margin came from **volume and chance quality**, not just possession. Statistically, the game would be decided by whether Jordan could hold Argentina below about **1.0 xG** and force a low-event match, because once Argentina’s shot total and box entries rose, their finishing advantage and set-piece superiority made a multi-goal win the most likely outcome.