Norway enter as the clearer statistical favorite: in the market they’re **45% no-vig** versus Ivory Coast’s **27%**, and they validated that edge with a **2-1** knockout win in Dallas, with **Erling Haaland** scoring the 86th-minute winner after **Antonio Nusa** opened the scoring and Ivory Coast’s **A. Diallo** equalized in the 74th minute. Norway’s attacking shape is built around a direct **4-3-3/4-2-3-1** look with Haaland as the box-finisher, Sørloth as the aerial/physical second striker option, and Schjelderup providing width and underlapping threat; that profile matters because Ivory Coast’s recent output was more modest, with **3 wins in their last 5**, **7 goals for and 5 against**, while Norway’s tournament edge was decisive late-game shot volume and penalty-box efficiency. The key matchup is **Haaland vs the Ivory Coast center-backs**: he finished the tournament with **5 goals** by the time of this match, and Norway’s best path is feeding him through crosses, cut-backs, and second-ball entries rather than sustained possession. On the other side, Ivory Coast’s best route runs through **Nicolas Pépé** and **Parfait Guiagon** attacking the space behind Norway’s fullbacks, while **Ange-Yoan Bonny** gives them a direct outlet; if they can turn transition attacks into higher-quality chances, they can punish Norway’s advanced defensive line. Set pieces are a major Norway edge because of **Haaland/Sørloth** power and aerial gravity, while Ivory Coast’s press has to be selective: if they overcommit, Norway’s front line can isolate defenders in open field, but if they sit too deep, they invite repeated crosses and high xG headers. Statistically, this match is likely decided by **box touches, cross conversion, and transition shot quality**: Norway win if they generate more high-value chances through wide service and set pieces, while Ivory Coast’s upset path requires better chance efficiency from Pépé/Guiagon-led breaks and at least one clean first action after regaining possession.