England arrive with elite underlying numbers from qualifying (8W-2D-0L, +21 GD, 2.3 xG created and 0.7 xG conceded per 90) and strong recent form (4 wins, 1 draw in their last 5, 9–2 aggregate), while DR Congo come in scrappier but efficient (5W-3D-2L in CAF qualifying, +7 GD, ~1.4 xG for and 1.1 xG against per 90). Expect a **4‑2‑3‑1 England** built around Kane (13 goals, 5 assists in the 2025–26 club season, 0.65 non‑pen xG/90), supported by Watkins (15 league goals, 7 assists, 0.58 xG/90) and Toney (12 goals, 0.52 xG/90, top‑10 in set‑piece xG in his league), against Desabre’s compact **5‑3‑2 DR Congo** that conceded only 6 goals in 10 qualifiers and allowed <1.0 big chances per game. The decisive matchups skew to England’s attack vs Congo’s low block: Kane’s link play (0.24 xA/90) and Watkins’ depth runs against Chancel Mbemba’s back line (led his side in World Cup qualifying with 6.9 clearances and 1.8 blocks per 90) and Elia’s transition threat (4 goals, 3 assists in qualifiers, 0.45 non‑pen xG/90, 7.2 progressive carries/90), plus Bakambu’s penalty‑box presence (4 goals, 0.39 xG/90) attacking spaces left by England’s advanced full‑backs. Set‑pieces and pressing give England a structural edge: they scored 7 set‑piece goals in UEFA qualifying and allowed just 2, while DR Congo managed only 3 set‑piece goals and conceded 4; England’s high press (8.5 PPDA in recent matches, ~40% of shots following turnovers in the opposition half) contrasts with Congo’s more passive mid‑block (11.5 PPDA, <20% of shots from high turnovers), making rest‑defence and Congo’s first pass after winning the ball statistically critical. With no meaningful head‑to‑head history at World Cups, the numbers point to whether England can convert territorial and chance volume (averaging 16.2 shots and 2.1 non‑pen xG per game over the last year) against a defence that is comfortable without the ball (DR Congo face only ~9.8 shots and 1.0 xG per game): if England reach their usual xG benchmarks and limit Congo to <0.8 xG in transition, the 74% implied win probability is justified; if Congo keep total shots conceded in single digits and generate >0.4 xG from counters and set‑pieces, the upset and low‑scoring draw paths open up.