USA arrive with group-stage numbers of 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game (12 for, 8 against in 5 matches), a +4 xG differential and 60% average possession, while Bosnia advanced as a third-place side with 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, 44% possession and roughly 0.9 xG created per match. USA’s 4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1 high-possession structure, built on Pulisic (3 goals, 2 assists, ~0.55 non-pen xG+xA/90) and Balogun (2 goals, 1.1 xG, 6 shots in the box per 90), will clash with Bosnia’s compact 4-3-3 that sits deep, allows 12 box shots per game, and counters through Dzeko (2 goals, 0.45 xG/90) and Kerim-Sam Alajbegovic (1 goal, 2.3 shot-creating actions/90). The decisive matchups are Pulisic attacking Bosnia’s right side where they have conceded 40% of their chances, Balogun vs Dzeko in penalty-box efficiency (Balogun converting 25% of his tournament shots, Dzeko 18%), and Sebastian Berhalter’s ball-winning (3.2 tackles+interceptions/90, ~9.0 recoveries/90) against Jovo Lukic, who leads Bosnia with ~0.25 xG+xA/90 from late runs into the box. Set pieces and pressing skew toward the USA: they have 3 set-piece goals and allow only 0.08 xG per defensive set piece, while Bosnia have conceded 2 from corners and complete only ~78% of pressured passes against an American press that forces ~10 high turnovers per game. Head-to-head, the nations have met three times in friendlies (USA: 2W-1D, GD +3), and statistical profiles point to shot volume (USA averaging 16 attempts to Bosnia’s 8), box-touch differential, and Bosnia’s ability to withstand the first 30 minutes—when USA generate ~45% of their xG—as the key drivers of whether a 68% USA win probability materializes or Bosnia’s 12% upset chance becomes live.