🇫🇷Francevs🇮🇶Iraq

France enter as an overwhelming statistical favorite, coming off a perfect Group I (3W, 7–1 GD) with Mbappé already on 4 goals and ~3.5 non-penalty xG at this World Cup, while Iraq arrive winless with a 1–9 goal difference and sub-40% possession across three group games. France’s 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 hybrid, averaging ~1.9 xG created and under 0.7 xG conceded per match in qualifying, will press high and flood the half-spaces, against an Iraq side typically in a compact 4-5-1 that generated only ~1.1 xG per game in AFC qualifying but relied on set pieces for over 30% of their goals. The key duel is Mbappé (16 career World Cup goals, 0.70 non-penalty xG/90 at this tournament) attacking the right channel against Kevin Yakob, who led Iraq’s qualifiers with 4.3 tackles+interceptions per 90 but was dribbled past three times and conceded 2 chances in the previous 3-0 meeting; Thuram (15 goals, 7 assists in his 2025-26 club season) vs Ali Jasim (team-high 3.2 progressive passes/90) on France’s left side will dictate whether Iraq can counter from deep. In the box, Barcola’s 0.35 xG+0.20 xA/90 profile and France’s 6.2 corners per game pose a mismatch against an Iraq defense that has allowed 1 set-piece goal per game at this World Cup and kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 competitive matches. Pressing metrics (France forcing ~10 high turnovers per match, Iraq completing under 80% of passes in their own half versus top-30 opposition) and the prior head-to-head – France 3-0 Iraq in group play with a 19–4 shot count and ~2.4–0.3 xG – imply that ball recoveries in Iraq’s defensive third and French efficiency on first and second-phase set pieces will statistically decide the margin more than the outright result itself.