France should pin Iraq deep with a **4-2-3-1/4-3-3-style** high press, territorial control and constant wide rotations, with Mbappé the main accelerator and Thuram/Barcola attacking the channels around a compact Iraqi block. Iraq’s best chance is to stay narrow, slow France’s tempo, and use Ali Jasim and Hasan Abdulkareem in transition, with Kevin Yakob as the outlet who can release counters before France’s full-backs recover. The decisive battles are Mbappé vs Iraq’s back line in open space and France’s midfield press vs Iraq’s first pass out of pressure, because if Iraq cannot escape the initial wave they will spend long spells defending their box. With France’s attacking depth and the market implying an 84% win probability, the game likely turns on whether Iraq can survive set pieces and isolated counters long enough to force frustration.
