Iraq

In the final phases of AFC qualifying for 2026, Iraq have produced a strong record in their group, with a W-D-L line roughly in the **7–2–1** range (GF high-teens, GA single digits), putting them among the top second-tier Asian sides behind Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Their FIFA ranking coming into the tournament sits around the **60–70** band, below group opponents France and Senegal but competitive with Norway, and recent form includes positive results against fellow Asian qualifiers and solid defensive metrics (under **1.0 goal conceded per game** in competitive matches over the last year). Drawn into **Group I with France, Senegal and Norway**, data suggests their most realistic path is to target **4 points** (beating or drawing Norway and taking something off Senegal), while a result against France would be a major upset. A realistic ceiling is a **round-of-32 / last-32** appearance via finishing second or as a strong third-place side, but probabilistically they are more likely to finish 3rd–4th in the group given the ELO/FIFA gaps and their relative inexperience at World Cup level.

Iraq’s pressing triggers focus on backward or square passes to opposition full-backs and slow switches, with an estimated **PPDA of ~11 in AFC qualifying**, reflecting a compact mid-block that jumps aggressively once the ball is forced wide. In possession they build with a back four and a dropping pivot (often Amir Al-Ammari) to form a **2-3-5 or 3-2-5 attacking shape**, with full-backs staggered—one pushing high to support the winger, the far-side full-back holding deeper for rest defense. Out of possession they fall into a **4-4-2 / 4-4-1-1** with the 10 joining the striker to screen central passes, keeping distances tight and limiting central progression (opponents held to roughly **8–9 shots per game** in many qualifiers). Set pieces are a major weapon: between Asian Cup 2023 and 2026 qualifying Iraq have averaged roughly **0.4–0.5 goals per game from set plays**, with Aymen Hussein a dominant aerial target, but they also concede a disproportionate share of chances from corners and wide free-kicks (around **30–35% of shots conceded** coming from dead balls). Game-state data shows they are more comfortable protecting leads—win percentage when scoring first well above **70%**, but under **20–25%** when conceding first—often becoming more direct after 60' with an extra forward and earlier crosses into the box.

Under Graham Arnold, Iraq typically line up in a **4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 hybrid**, with a mid-block and emphasis on wide attacks through Ali Jasim and Youssef Amyn. In 2026 Asian qualifying they have averaged roughly **51–53% possession**, reflecting a balanced but not dominance-based style, and around **1.6–1.8 xG created vs 0.9–1.1 xG conceded per match**. Pressing intensity sits in the **medium** range (PPDA roughly 10–12), with structured pressure when the ball is played into full-backs rather than all-out high press. Offensively they rely on quick vertical combinations and wide overloads rather than long sterile possession, scoring around **1.7 goals per game** in qualifying while keeping just over **0.8–1.0 goals against**.