France are the likelier control side, using their pace and individual quality to pin Norway back, but the market still gives Norway a real counterpunch chance at **22%** because Haaland can turn limited service into goals. The main tactical hinge is France’s high-end wide threat against Norway’s back line and fullbacks: if Mbappé and Barcola can isolate space early, Norway may be forced deeper and lose access to Sørloth/Haaland in transition. Norway’s best route is to keep the game compact, attack quickly through Schjelderup and direct vertical passes, and make France defend repeated second balls and crosses. The result likely swings on who wins the transition moments and set-piece duels, because that’s where Norway can upset France’s superior overall quality.
