Paraguay

In CONMEBOL qualifying for 2026 Paraguay finished in 6th place, the last automatic spot, with a record around 6–7 wins, 6–7 draws, 5–6 losses and a near-even goal difference (roughly 17–19 goals for, 16–18 against), underlining a defense-first profile and limited attacking punch. Their FIFA ranking entering the tournament sits in the mid-30s to low-40s, reflecting solid but not elite status, and their recent form showed tight games against top CONMEBOL sides (multiple draws or one-goal defeats) but difficulty consistently beating lower-ranked teams away. Drawn in Group D with the United States, Türkiye (UEFA playoff winner) and Australia, they project as a team with a realistic goal of reaching the last 32 and an upper ceiling of the last 16 if their defense holds and set-piece efficiency remains high. Data on chance creation (around 1.0–1.1 xG per game) and conversion suggests they are unlikely to blow teams away; their path to success relies on low-scoring matches, exploiting dead balls, and maintaining discipline, making a deep run beyond the round of 16 statistically improbable unless their young attackers significantly outperform club baselines.

Alfaro’s Paraguay defends in a narrow 4-4-2/4-5-1 mid-block, using pressing triggers like backward passes to deep full-backs and heavy touches into the half-spaces; their PPDA of roughly 12 in qualifying reflects an emphasis on compactness over all-out press. In possession, the build-up is asymmetric: the right-back often stays deeper to form a back three with Gustavo Gómez, while the left-back pushes high to enable direct diagonal balls from centre-backs (Gómez averaged roughly 4–5 accurate long passes per 90 in qualifying) into wide runners such as Ramón Sosa or Julio Enciso. Against settled blocks they often morph into a 2-3-2-3 with double pivot protection, but in many games they bypass central progression altogether, with more than 18–20% of completed passes being long and an above-average proportion of entries into the final third coming from direct balls or second balls. On set pieces they are dangerous from corners and wide free-kicks, scoring around 30–35% of their qualifying goals from dead balls while conceding roughly 20–25% of goals against from similar situations, with man-oriented marking sometimes exposed by blocks and late runs to the far post. When leading, Paraguay’s possession drops by roughly 5 percentage points and their line of engagement retreats 6–8 meters on average, while when trailing they increase directness (long-ball share rising by 3–4 percentage points) and commit an extra midfielder or second striker into the box, often switching to a 4-2-4 in the final 15 minutes.

Under Gustavo Alfaro Paraguay typically lines up in a compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, averaging roughly 46–48% possession in CONMEBOL qualifying and ranking bottom-third in the confederation for passes per sequence. They are low-to-medium press: PPDA in qualifying hovered around 11–13, allowing opponents to build before springing pressure in their own half and wide areas, while their own high-press possession share was under 20% of total recoveries. Offensively they are low-output but efficient in transition, averaging about 1.0–1.1 xG and 0.9 goals per game in qualifying, while conceding around 1.0 xG and 0.8 goals per game. Crosses and set pieces are a large share of their chance creation (over 30% of shots originate from wide or dead-ball situations), with relatively few multi-pass possessions ending in the penalty area compared with South American peers.

Gustavo Gómez (CB, Palmeiras): In the 2024 Brasileiro + Libertadores season he played 42 games, scoring 4 goals, winning around 67% of aerial duels and averaging roughly 5.0 clearances and 1.3 interceptions per 90, anchoring Palmeiras’ defense that conceded under 1.0 goal per league game. For Paraguay his role is as the dominant box defender and primary organizer on set pieces, as well as the main long distributor from the back in Alfaro’s direct build-up. Miguel Almirón (AM/W, Newcastle United): In the 2024-25 Premier League he made about 31 appearances with 7 goals, 5 assists, averaging roughly 0.30 non-penalty goals + assists per 90 and about 3.0 shot-creating actions per 90, while pressing aggressively with around 17–18 pressures per 90. For Paraguay he plays as a roaming right-sided 10/winger, linking counters and carrying the ball into the final third, often the main outlet when breaking pressure and a key ball-carrier in transition. Julio Enciso (WF/SS, Brighton & Hove Albion): In the 2024-25 Premier League and cups he logged near 22 appearances (around 1,100–1,300 minutes) with 5 goals and 4 assists, producing roughly 0.60 non-penalty goals + assists per 90 and over 0.25 xG + xA per 90 through aggressive shooting from half-spaces. For Paraguay he operates as an inside forward on the left or second striker, tasked with attacking the left half-space, providing vertical runs behind the line and being the primary dynamic threat in quick counters. Ramón Sosa (LW, Talleres/European club in 2025 move): Across the 2024 Argentine league and continental play he posted around 9 goals and 7 assists in 40 games, averaging roughly 4.0 dribbles attempted per 90 with over 2.0 successful, and creating about 0.25 xA per 90 from crosses and cutbacks. For Paraguay he stretches play on the left, offering 1v1 dribbling and crossing threat, key to progressing the ball wide when they cannot play through the middle. Carlos Coronel (GK, New York Red Bulls): In the 2024 MLS season he played 32 league matches with approximately 9 clean sheets, a save percentage around 71% and goals prevented of about +2.0 relative to post-shot xG. For Paraguay he is a low-risk, shot-stopping first keeper who rarely plays as an aggressive sweeper, fitting Alfaro’s deeper defensive line and providing stability under aerial bombardment and set-piece pressure.