The Kansas City Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers on September 5, 2025, in São Paulo, Brazil. The Chiefs are favored by 3 points, having defeated the Chargers in their last seven meetings.
Key Matchups to Watch:
George Karlaftis and Chris Jones vs. Chargers OL: With Rashawn Slater out, the Chargers' offensive line is vulnerable. Karlaftis (projected 11+ sacks) and Jones (16.4% pressure rate) are expected to exploit this, targeting backup OT Trey Pipkins.
Chiefs Secondary vs. Chargers WRs: Trent McDuffie and Kristian Fulton will face second year Ladd McConkey (projected 800+ receiving yards) and rookie Tre Harris, aiming to disrupt the Chargers' passing attack.
Chiefs Offensive Gameplan:
Ball Control & Quick Passes: Patrick Mahomes (projected 290+ yards, 3 TDs) will rely on Travis Kelce and second-year Xavier Worthy, while Isiah Pacheco (projected 1,100+ rushing yards) balances the run game.
Exploiting Safety Play: Mahomes will target downfield opportunities against the Chargers' young secondary, with Kelce, Worthy, and Hollywood Brown as key targets.
Chiefs Defensive Gameplan:
Heavy Pressure, Disguised Fronts: Steve Spagnuolo will use 5-man fronts to pressure Justin Herbert, with aggressive corner play to disrupt timing.
Chargers Offensive Gameplan:
Quick Passing, Utilize Young WR: Jim Harbaugh's offense will focus on quick outs and screens to McConkey, Harris, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, minimizing pressure on Herbert.
Omarion Hampton at RB: Hampton offers a stable running and receiving prowess, fitting Harbaugh’s high-percentage play objectives.
Chargers Defensive Gameplan:
Disguise Coverages: Jesse Minter will mix zone coverages to bait Mahomes into checkdowns, using versatile roles for rookie DBs and Asante Samuel Jr.
Advanced Stats to Watch:
Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR)
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR)
EPA per Play, Success Rate
Pressure Rate Allowed (OL) & Generated (DL)
Third Down Conversion Rate
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17. The Chiefs' defense, led by Karlaftis and Jones, and Mahomes' ability to exploit mismatches will be decisive. The Chargers must protect Herbert and establish rhythm with McConkey and Harris to challenge the Chiefs.
