Fantasy football drafts are filled with potential landmines, and identifying bust candidates at the TE position is crucial for avoiding costly mistakes. George Kittle, Sam Laporta, T.J. Hockenson are being drafted higher than their projected performance suggests, making them risky investments at their current ADP.
Here's a detailed evaluation of George Kittle, Sam Laporta, T.J. Hockenson players whose current draft positions may not align with their 2025 outlook.
George Kittle (TE, San Francisco 49ers)
ADP: 33.7
Projected: 223.8 pts, TE3 finish
Key Metrics: 1029 projected receiving yards, 105 projected targets
George Kittle, appealing due to his projected 19.0% target share and elite efficiency, is a potential bust pick for 2025. Despite leading tight ends in fantasy points per game and yards per route run in 2024, the departure of Deebo Samuel and injuries to Brandon Aiyuk mean defenses will likely key on Kittle, potentially limiting his production. While rookie Ricky Pearsall and other new WRs may eventually relieve pressure, early-season defenses are likely to focus on Kittle, increasing his volatility. His ADP of 33.7 suggests high expectations, but his age, injury history, and potential for defensive focus make him a risky investment. Fantasy managers should consider the high bust potential relative to his draft cost.
Sam LaPorta (TE, Detroit Lions)
ADP: 61.6
Projected: 192.4 pts, TE4 finish
Key Metrics: 784 projected receiving yards, 102 projected targets
Sam LaPorta enters 2025 with an appealing ADP of 61.6, but his projected contested catch rate of 72.9% starkly contrasts with his historical 42.4%, signaling potential overestimation of his abilities in tight situations. Despite rebounding to TE6 in the latter half of 2024, LaPorta's target rate dropped from 23.3% as a rookie to 17.3% in 2024, raising concerns about his role stability. Additionally, Detroit's offensive overhaul, including the loss of OC Ben Johnson and key O-line departures, introduces volatility, potentially capping LaPorta's opportunities and efficiency. With a challenging schedule and a new offensive scheme, LaPorta's fantasy managers should be wary of inflated expectations, making him a risky bet for 2025.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, Minnesota Vikings)
ADP: 71.4
Projected: 182.7 pts, TE5 finish
Key Metrics: 795 projected receiving yards, 117 projected targets
T.J. Hockenson, a tight end for the Minnesota Vikings, is a risky pick for 2025 fantasy drafts despite his appealing ADP of 71.4. His 33.3% contested catch rate indicates a moderate ability to secure tough receptions, but his recent ACL recovery raises concerns. Hockenson's 2024 season was cut short to just nine games, and re-injury risk typically lingers into the following season, potentially impacting his explosiveness and target share. With rookie QB J.J. McCarthy leading the offense, the quality and volume of targets are uncertain, especially as the Vikings might lean on a stronger running game to ease McCarthy's development. Although he projects for 182.69 points, the volatility in QB play and possible game plan shifts make Hockenson a potential bust in 2025 fantasy football.
The Bottom Line: Your Draft Strategy
In fantasy football, targeting potential bust picks at the TE position is crucial for optimizing your draft strategy. Players like George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson are being drafted higher than their projected performances suggest, posing a risk to your lineup's efficiency. While these players have proven talent, their draft capital might be better spent on more reliable or value-driven options. Instead, consider targeting mid-round TEs with high upside and favorable matchups. By avoiding overvalued TEs, you can allocate resources to fortify other positions, ensuring a balanced and competitive team.
