Fantasy football drafts are filled with potential landmines, and identifying bust candidates at the RB position is crucial for avoiding costly mistakes. Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, David Montgomery are being drafted higher than their projected performance suggests, making them risky investments at their current ADP.
Here's a detailed evaluation of 3 players whose current draft positions may not align with their 2025 outlook.
Travis Etienne (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars)
ADP: 90.7
Projected: 154.2 pts, RB38 finish
Key Metrics: 552 projected rushing yards, 176 projected total touches
Travis Etienne's appeal as a fantasy asset is marred by significant red flags heading into the 2025 season. Despite his 45.52% success rate on zone runs, his projected fantasy efficiency of just 0.17 suggests a limited ceiling. With an ADP of 90.7 and projected points of 154.19, Etienne faces a crowded backfield and a pass-heavy Jaguars offense that could further diminish his role. The addition of first-round rookies like Travis Hunter and the emergence of Brian Thomas Jr. threatens to siphon targets and touches away from Etienne, while Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten could encroach on his goal-line and third-down duties. In an offense led by an inexperienced coaching staff, Etienne's fantasy value is risky, hinging precariously on efficiency rather than volume.
Breece Hall (RB, New York Jets)
ADP: 34.8
Projected: 233.1 pts, RB20 finish
Key Metrics: 1020 projected rushing yards, 277 projected total touches
Breece Hall, with an ADP of 34.8, is a strong bust candidate for 2025 due to his projected fantasy efficiency of just 0.16 points per touch, starkly lower than his historical average. Despite effective initial blocking, Hall's lack of breakaway runs and red zone opportunities limits his upside. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, favors a committee approach, with rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis likely siphoning early-down and goal-line work. Additionally, dual-threat QB Justin Fields could reduce Hall's target share. Hall's diminished rushing efficiency and unresolved post-ACL explosiveness questions further cap his ceiling. Fantasy managers should be wary of investing in Hall at his current ADP, given his volatile role and limited scoring potential.
David Montgomery (RB, Detroit Lions)
ADP: 59.5
Projected: 213.4 pts, RB25 finish
Key Metrics: 852 projected rushing yards, 243 projected total touches
David Montgomery's ability to force missed tackles, averaging 0.107 per rush attempt, suggests he could convert elusive moves into touchdowns, supporting his projected 10.05 rushing TDs for 2025. However, Detroit's offensive upheaval, with John Morton as the new OC and the loss of key linemen Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, casts significant doubt on his efficiency and red zone opportunities. Montgomery's ADP of 59.5 positions him as a mid-round pick, but with Jahmyr Gibbs likely to siphon touches and the offensive line in flux, his role is heavily touchdown-dependent. The potential for a committee approach and Morton's unproven NFL OC track record further elevate his bust risk. Fantasy managers should proceed with caution.
The Bottom Line: Your Draft Strategy
Targeting bust picks at the RB position can dramatically affect your fantasy team's success. Identifying players like Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, and David Montgomery as potential busts means you're aware they may be drafted higher than their projected performance suggests. This awareness allows you to avoid overpaying in the draft and instead seek value in other rounds. When strategizing for RBs, consider diversifying your picks with stable veterans or breakout candidates who offer more reliable returns. Prioritizing value over hype ensures your RB core remains strong and adaptable throughout the season, maximizing your chances of victory.
