Fantasy football drafts are filled with potential landmines, and identifying bust candidates at the QB position is crucial for avoiding costly mistakes. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels are being drafted higher than their projected performance suggests, making them risky investments at their current ADP.
Here's a detailed evaluation of 3 players whose current draft positions may not align with their 2025 outlook.
Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
ADP: 27.3
Projected: 360.6 pts, QB4 finish
Key Metrics: 3725 projected passing yards, 31 projected passing TDs
Lamar Jackson, with an ADP of 27.3, is poised for a potential bust in 2025 despite his impressive historical Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) of 5.85%. While his projected completion rate of 67.08% suggests accuracy, his fantasy value is at risk due to Derrick Henry's presence, which could siphon goal-line carries and limit Jackson's rushing TD upside. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins further complicates target distribution, likely capping Jackson's ceiling with fewer spike weeks. His minor preseason foot injury, though not serious, raises durability concerns for a high-usage dual-threat QB. Given the stable yet possibly stagnant offensive scheme, Jackson's potential for regression makes him a risky QB1 investment.
Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)
ADP: 26.7
Projected: 365.5 pts, QB3 finish
Key Metrics: 3977 projected passing yards, 27 projected passing TDs
Josh Allen, despite his appeal as a dual-threat quarterback, presents significant bust risk for 2025. While his RPO usage has declined from 8.06% in 2021 to 5.00% in 2024, his total touches have remained consistent at 113.61 per season. However, the loss of key receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, coupled with an inexperienced and injury-plagued receiving corps, may hinder Allen's passing efficiency and increase turnover risk. The Bills' offensive strategy shift towards quick-game concepts could further limit his deep passing upside. With an ADP of 26.7, fantasy managers should be cautious, as the instability in his supporting cast and potential for increased turnovers make Allen a volatile option at his draft cost.
Jayden Daniels (QB, Washington Commanders)
ADP: 34.9
Projected: 366.5 pts, QB1 finish
Key Metrics: 4086 projected passing yards, 27 projected passing TDs
Jayden Daniels, the Washington Commanders' QB, carries an ADP of 34.9, but fantasy managers should be wary of his bust potential for 2025. While his projected points of 366.46 seem promising, his fluctuating Pressure Rate Over Expected (PROE), varying from -13.4% to 24.14%, suggests potential volatility in performance. Despite a projected 27.21 passing touchdowns, the offensive line's early instability, particularly with RG Sam Cosmi's possible absence, could increase sacks and turnovers. Furthermore, the addition of Deebo Samuel and Austin Ekeler introduces more target competition, potentially reducing Daniels's rushing touchdowns. With increased defensive focus and a likely regression from an optimal 2024 season, Daniels's fantasy floor is at risk. Avoid drafting him at his current ADP.
The Bottom Line: Your Draft Strategy
Targeting bust picks at the QB position can be a game-changer for your fantasy football draft strategy. Players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jayden Daniels are being drafted higher than their projected performance suggests, representing potential pitfalls for your roster. By identifying these overvalued quarterbacks, you can avoid reaching for them early and instead focus on acquiring value picks that deliver consistent points. Prioritizing QBs who offer a balance of reliability and upside ensures you build a well-rounded team, leaving you room to strengthen other key positions. Make informed decisions to maximize your draft's potential.
