Identifying bust candidates at the RB position is essential for a solid draft. Jordan Mason, R.J. Harvey, Breece Hall are being drafted higher than their projected performance suggests, making them risky investments at their current ADP.
Here's a detailed evaluation of 3 players whose current draft positions may not align with their 2025 outlook.
Jordan Mason (RB, Minnesota Vikings)
ADP: 87.7
Projected: 126.7 pts, RB43 finish
Key Metrics: 820 projected rushing yards, 191 projected total touches
Jordan Mason, with an ADP of 87.7, might initially tempt fantasy managers due to his past 5.10 YPC and 8.07% explosive run percentage in 2024. However, his projected decline to 4.56 YPC in 2025 signals a downturn in efficiency, exacerbated by his move to the Minnesota Vikings. Slated as part of a committee with Aaron Jones, Mason's role as a backup limits his opportunity to shine. The Vikings' shift towards a more conservative scheme under rookie QB J.J. McCarthy could further cap Mason's upside, as increased defensive focus on the run game may stifle explosive plays. Fantasy managers should be wary of relying on Mason as anything more than a depth option, given these constraints.
R.J. Harvey (RB, Denver Broncos)
ADP: 61.4
Projected: 201.0 pts, RB28 finish
Key Metrics: 821 projected rushing yards, 227 projected total touches
R.J. Harvey, a rookie RB for the Denver Broncos, carries an ADP of 61.4 but presents substantial bust potential for the 2025 fantasy season. Despite the continuity of Sean Payton's offensive scheme, which generally favors running backs, the presence of veteran J.K. Dobbins significantly threatens Harvey's workload. The Broncos' commitment to a committee approach, combined with the arrival of TE Evan Engram, could dilute Harvey's opportunities, especially in the passing game. With no significant statistical insights supporting Harvey's immediate impact, his fantasy value is further clouded by the typical unpredictability of rookie RBs under Payton. Fantasy managers should exercise caution, as Harvey's ceiling may not justify his draft cost.
Breece Hall (RB, New York Jets)
ADP: 43.1
Projected: 223.7 pts, RB20 finish
Key Metrics: 1007 projected rushing yards, 272 projected total touches
Breece Hall's appeal as a fantasy asset is tempered by the projected 4.43 YPC for 2025, which, while indicating efficiency, is overshadowed by his historical 39.44% success rate on zone-concept rushes. With an ADP of 43.1, Hall is a risky pick given the Jets' shift to a committee approach under new head coach Aaron Glenn. The Jets' strategy to distribute backfield touches between Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis limits Hall's volume and potential for high-value touches. Additionally, Justin Fields' presence could siphon goal-line carries, further capping Hall's touchdown upside. While Hall's versatility remains an asset, his week-to-week reliability is in question, making him a prime bust candidate this season.
The Bottom Line: Your Draft Strategy
Targeting bust picks at the RB position is crucial for maximizing draft value and avoiding roster pitfalls. Players like Jordan Mason, R.J. Harvey, and Breece Hall are being drafted higher than their likely performance, presenting significant risks. Identifying these potential busts allows you to allocate draft capital toward more reliable RB choices, enhancing your team's stability. Focus on selecting RBs with solid offensive roles and proven track records over unproven hype. Avoiding bust picks is essential to maintain depth and flexibility in your lineup, ensuring a competitive edge throughout the fantasy season.
