Fantasy football drafts are filled with potential landmines, and identifying bust candidates at the TE position is crucial for avoiding costly mistakes. George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson are being drafted higher than their projected performance suggests, making them risky investments at their current ADP.
Here's a detailed evaluation of 3 players whose current draft positions may not align with their 2025 outlook.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
ADP: 30.1
Projected: 226.3 pts, TE3 finish
Key Metrics: 1050 projected receiving yards, 105 projected targets
George Kittle's projected efficiency spike to 9.88 yards per target may seem enticing, but it masks significant bust potential for the 2025 fantasy season. Despite his impressive 1,106 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 94 targets last season, Kittle's age (31) and expected heavy usage pose substantial risks. With the 49ers' wide receiver corps decimated by injuries, Kittle will face increased defensive focus, likely leading to more physical coverage and a higher risk of injury. His ADP of 30.1 suggests high expectations, yet the lack of depth at receiver and offensive line instability could lead to inconsistency and regression. Draft Kittle with caution, as his upside is overshadowed by potential volatility and midseason fatigue.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
ADP: 64.4
Projected: 191.4 pts, TE4 finish
Key Metrics: 777 projected receiving yards, 104 projected targets
Sam LaPorta's appeal as a fantasy option is evident given his projected 10.33 yards per reception (YPR) in 2025, a notable increase from his historical 7.96 aDOT. However, despite this promising efficiency, his role is at risk due to key changes around him. The departure of two vital offensive linemen could impede Jared Goff's protection, limiting LaPorta's ability to capitalize on deeper routes. Additionally, the coaching shift with John Morton as offensive coordinator introduces uncertainty in the Lions' passing scheme, potentially impacting LaPorta's target volume and red-zone opportunities. With an ADP of 64.4, the risk factors outweigh the upside, making LaPorta a potential bust in 2025 fantasy drafts.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
ADP: 67.2
Projected: 186.7 pts, TE5 finish
Key Metrics: 802 projected receiving yards, 119 projected targets
T.J. Hockenson, appealing for his adaptability and projected 186.7 points, is a potential bust pick given his ADP of 67.2. Despite a stable yards per reception (YPR) of 9.84 across varying depths of target, his return from a serious knee injury raises concerns about performance sustainability and injury recurrence. With second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy leading the Vikings, expected growing pains could dampen Hockenson's consistency, especially as Minnesota implements '12' personnel packages. This setup, while increasing his snap share, risks target dilution with Josh Oliver. Additionally, as wide receivers return, Hockenson's target volume may decrease, capping his upside. Fantasy takeaway: Draft Hockenson cautiously, as his risk may outweigh his projected stability.
The Bottom Line: Your Draft Strategy
In fantasy football, targeting potential bust picks at the tight end (TE) position can make or break your draft strategy. This year, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson are identified as potential busts, meaning they're being selected higher than their projected output suggests. TE is a position where securing consistent value can be challenging, and overreaching for a bust can hinder your team's overall performance. Instead, consider waiting to draft a sleeper TE who offers better value in later rounds. Balancing risk and reward is crucial in TE draft strategy, ensuring your lineup remains competitive throughout the season.
