🇸🇳Senegalvs🇮🇶Iraq

Senegal arrive with stronger underlying numbers, averaging 1.6 xG for and 1.1 xG against over their last 10 competitive games and scoring 17 goals, while Iraq’s recent run sits closer to 1.1 xG for, 1.4 xG against and 11 goals scored but 16 conceded in the same span. Senegal typically line up in a **4-3-3** with aggressive wide pressing and high full-back positioning, while Iraq favor a compact **4-2-3-1** mid-block, conceding under 45% possession in qualifying and relying on direct counter-attacks and crosses rather than sustained buildup. The key attacking duel is **Sadio Mané** (7 goals, 4 assists, ~0.55 non-pen xG+xA per 90 across AFCON 2023 + WCQ) and **Ismaïla Sarr** (5 goals, 3 assists, ~0.40 xG+xA/90) running at Iraq’s right side, where **Kevin Yakob** contributes ball progression (≈4.5 progressive passes/90, 3 WCQ assists) but offers less pure defensive output, forcing Iraq’s right-back into repeated 1v2 situations. For Iraq, **Ali Jasim** (4 goals, 2 assists in AFC WCQ, ~0.35 xG+xA/90) and **Hasan Abdulkareem** (3 goals, 3 assists, strong set-piece delivery with ~0.18 xG from dead balls per 90) must exploit transitions behind Senegal’s advanced full-backs, where Senegal have allowed 1.3 xG from counter-attacks in their first two group matches. Set pieces and pressing efficiency are likely decisive: Senegal have produced 5 goals from set plays in their last 15 competitive fixtures and average ~6.0 high turnovers per match, while Iraq have conceded 6 headed goals and only 3 clean sheets in their last 12; historically Senegal have taken 7 points from three pre-2026 meetings (2 wins, 1 draw, GD +4), and if this game follows their usual shot-volume edge (≈14–8 in attempts), Senegal’s probability-weighted profile strongly favors a multi-goal victory unless Iraq significantly outperform their typical shot-quality and defensive set-piece metrics.